← Depreciating CollateralEren Kahraman · November 2026

Figure 2.1. The AI infrastructure financing chain and points where risk enters

Long-term investors: Insurers, pension funds, credit funds, Where technology risk enters: Refinancing risk: At every link of the chain. Debt instruments: Bonds, SPVs, GPU-backed loans, ABS, Where technology risk enters: Hardware obsolescence: Collateral loses value. Infrastructure owners: Data centre SPVs, neoclouds, Where technology risk enters: Vendor financing: Demand signal becomes unclear. Capacity buyers: Hyperscalers, AI developers (take-or-pay), Where technology risk enters: Offtaker concentration: Ratings rest on a few contracts. End users: Firms and households paying per token, Where technology risk enters: Revenue deflation: Token prices fall.

Long-term investorsInsurers, pension funds, credit fundsDebt instrumentsBonds, SPVs, GPU-backed loans, ABSInfrastructure ownersData centre SPVs, neocloudsCapacity buyersHyperscalers, AI developers (take-or-pay)End usersFirms and households paying per tokenRefinancing riskAt every link of the chainHardware obsolescenceCollateral loses valueVendor financingDemand signal becomes unclearOfftaker concentrationRatings rest on a few contractsRevenue deflationToken prices fallFunds flow down the chain; repayment flows back up from what end users pay.
Long-term investorsInsurers, pension funds,credit fundsDebt instrumentsBonds, SPVs, GPU-backedloans, ABSInfrastructure ownersData centre SPVs, neocloudsCapacity buyersHyperscalers, AI developers(take-or-pay)End usersFirms and households payingper tokenRefinancing riskAt every link ofthe chainHardwareobsolescenceCollateral losesvalueVendor financingDemand signalbecomes unclearOfftakerconcentrationRatings rest on afew contractsRevenue deflationToken prices fallFunds flow down the chain; repayment flowsback up from what end users pay.

Note: Orange boxes show where technology risk enters the chain. Refinancing risk can arise at every link.

Source: Author’s analysis, based on BIS (2026a, 2026b).

View data table
Figure 2.1. The AI infrastructure financing chain and points where risk enters: data
Link of the chainWhere technology risk enters
Long-term investors: Insurers, pension funds, credit fundsRefinancing risk: At every link of the chain
Debt instruments: Bonds, SPVs, GPU-backed loans, ABSHardware obsolescence: Collateral loses value
Infrastructure owners: Data centre SPVs, neocloudsVendor financing: Demand signal becomes unclear
Capacity buyers: Hyperscalers, AI developers (take-or-pay)Offtaker concentration: Ratings rest on a few contracts
End users: Firms and households paying per tokenRevenue deflation: Token prices fall
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From Depreciating Collateral: Technology risk in AI infrastructure debt and who holds it, Eren Kahraman, November 2026. Data as of 7 November 2026. Download the paper (PDF)