← Depreciating CollateralEren Kahraman · November 2026

Figure 5.1. Private credit to AI-related firms

A. Annual new lending (USD billion), Period: 2010, USD billion: ≈ 3. A. Annual new lending (USD billion), Period: 2025, USD billion: > 40. B. Outstanding stock (USD billion), Period: Current, USD billion: > 200. B. Outstanding stock (USD billion), Period: 2030 estimate, USD billion: 300-600.

A. Annual new lending (USD billion)010203040≈ 32010> 402025B. Outstanding stock (USD billion)0100200300400500600> 200300-600estimatedrangeCurrent2030 estimatefrom less than 1%about 8%of private creditShare of AI-related loansin private credit
A. Annual new lending(USD billion)010203040≈ 32010> 402025B. Outstanding stock(USD billion)0100200300400500600> 200300-600estimated rangeCurrent2030 estimatefrom less than 1%about 8%of private creditShare of AI-related loansin private credit

Note: The 2030 value in Panel B is an estimated range.

Source: BIS (2026a), Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt, BIS Bulletin No. 120.

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Figure 5.1. Private credit to AI-related firms: data
PanelPeriodUSD billion
A. Annual new lending (USD billion)2010≈ 3
A. Annual new lending (USD billion)2025> 40
B. Outstanding stock (USD billion)Current> 200
B. Outstanding stock (USD billion)2030 estimate300-600
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From Depreciating Collateral: Technology risk in AI infrastructure debt and who holds it, Eren Kahraman, November 2026. Data as of 7 November 2026. Download the paper (PDF)